Houston (G Cole) (@1.53) vs NY Yankees (L Severino) (@2.45)
16-10-2019

Our Prediction:

Houston (G Cole) will win

Houston (G Cole) – NY Yankees (L Severino) Match Prediction | 16-10-2019 16:08

Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis.

J.A. New York fell by a score of 3-2 in Game 2 of the ALCS Sunday night at Houston. Brett Gardner was 2-for-5. LeMahieu ended the game 1-for-4 with a walk plus a run scored. D.J. Aaron Judge paced the Yankees offensively as he finished 1-for-4 with a home run, a walk and two RBIs. Happ took the loss in relief as he surrendered one earned run on one hit with one strikeout and no walks over two-thirds of an inning.

On July 1, Severino became the first Yankee since CC Sabathia in 2011 to win 13 games prior to the All-Star break after throwing 623 shutout innings to beat the Red Sox. Severino allowed zero runs and struck out 10.[35] From April 16 to June 4, Severino posted ten consecutive quality starts of at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or less allowed (in six of those he allowed one or no earned runs), during this time span he went 70 with a 1.85 ERA in 68 innings, giving up only 45 hits (4 home runs), striking out 82, walking just 14 batters, and limiting opponents to a .184 batting average. Severino earned his 10th win of the season on June 16 after limiting the Rays to three hits and two walks in eight shutout innings with nine strikeouts, double his win count prior to the All-Star break in 2017, and becoming the first Yankee pitcher to win 10 or more games prior to the All-Star break since Masahiro Tanaka in 2014. On March 17, 2018, the Yankees named Severino their Opening Day starter.[33] He struck out seven and allowed one hit in 523 innings against the Toronto Blue Jays.[34] On May 2, 2018, against the Houston Astros, Severino pitched a complete game for the first time in his major league career, shutting out the Astros 40.

Yankees Arizona Fall League updates

That lineup likely can't win three of those and it may have to if it wants to win the series. Astros over the Rays in five This one is really as simple as this: while the Rays can match up with the Astros pitching wide, odds are Tampa Bay cannot beat Houston in three out of four games with Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Greinke starting. We think they could easily grab a couple, whether that be with a two-homer game from Tommy Pham off Cole (because he owns the righty for some reason) or a win against rookie Jose Urquidy, but ultimately, the Rays have to face Verlander, Cole and Greinke in four of the five games.

Colemight win the Cy Young Awardthis year, and if he doesnt then it will almost certainly go to his teammate Justin Verlander, who was dominant (7 IP, 0 ER) in Game 1 of the ALDS but struggled in Game 4 on short rest. Houstons pitching, however, is a different beast from Minnesotas. The longer series will require another starter, and theyll likely turn to rookie Jose Urquidy (3.95 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 7 starts, 41 IP) to bridge the gap. Zack Greinke, the likely Game 1 starter, may have struggled in Game 3 (3.2 IP, 6 ER), but his 2.93 ERA on the season suggests that we might not read too much into one game and, while a fewYankeeshave been able to get to him, hes limited the damage against most of their big bats, especially Aaron Judge (0-for-3, 3 Ks), Edwin Encarnacion (1-for-7) and Giancarlo Stanton (3-for-18).

Severino started the second half strong, first matching Chris Sale by allowing one run over seven innings in a pitcher's duel against the Red Sox.[25] In his next start, he fired seven shutout innings against the Seattle Mariners[26] and then allowed zero earned runs in seven innings against the Cincinnati Reds.[27] As of July 27, Severino was tied with Max Scherzer for second-most starts (8) of at least seven innings pitched with one earned run or less in the 2017 season, behind Clayton Kershaw's 11.[28]On August 17, 2017, Severino collected his first Major League hit off Steven Matz against the New York Mets. He collected his 11th win holding the Detroit Tigers to one earned run over 6 innings with eight strikeouts on August 23. On September 3, against the Boston Red Sox, Severino struck out his 200th batter of the season, becoming the second-youngest Yankee in franchise history with 200 strikeouts in one season behind Al Downing in 1964.

With the Nationals one win away from advancing to the franchise's first World Series, Buster and Dave Schoenfield discuss Stephen Strasburg's postseason dominance, how Bryce Harper looms over this team, if the media has underrated the Nationals and more (12:10). KBME's Steve Sparks also explains why Gerrit Cole is so good and if a canceled Game 3 (weather) would benefit the Astros or Yankees more (32:20). Plus, Sarah Langs and "The Numbers Game" (27:48).

Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees, 10/15/19 Prediction & Odds

The Yankees (103-59) won just two games more than the Twins during the regular season, and were outhomered by one, yet they continued their post-millennial postseason dominance of Minnesota, beating them in a Division Series for the fifth time in the past 17 seasons, outscoring them by a combined total of 23-7 and producing the rounds only sweep. The Astros (107-55) looked as though they might sweep of the Rays as well after Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole produced two of the postseasons most stifling performances to date, yet they needed the full five games to advance thanks to some strong pitching by the Rays, who kept most of the Astros big bats at bay. After two very different Division Series, the two strongest teams in the AL by win totals and run differentials will meet in the ALCS.

The Yankees will have three lefties in Chapman (.208 wOBA against lefties), Britton (.220), and likely CC Sabathia (.301) replacing rookie Tyler Lyons for what could be his final major league innings. Aside from Miley, the Astros arent likely to carry a southpaw on the roster, which doesnt matter terribly given the Yankees modest left-handed presence; both Gardner (70 wRC+ in 142 PA against lefties) and Gregorius (87 in 94 PA) could welcome that, but Pressly (.159 wOBA against lefties), Osuna (.207), and Harris (.212) are particularly adept at getting such hitters out. Theyll need to worry about the Astros two potent lefties, Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley; the former hit for a 171 wRC+ in 131 PA against lefties, the latter just 103 in 184 PA.

Greinke lasted only 3 2/3 innings at Tampa Bay on Monday and was charged with six runs on five hits - three home runs - with five strikeouts. He has a 5.05 career mark versus New York - his highest against any team he has faced at least 10 times - but yielded three runs in 12 2/3 frames against the Yankees during the regular season. That left the former Cy Young Award winner with a 3-5 record and a 4.58 ERA in 12 career postseason starts.

But we don't think the Twins can beat the Yankees in this one. That may be enough to win the first three games for the Yankees, but we'll give Minnesota one win in the first three, maybe in a crazy, high-scoring Game 3 at home. Yankees over Twins in four Severino, Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka. New York simply has too much firepower and is as healthy as it has been all year.

How would possible G4 rainout affect ALCS?

Stanton, after being limited by injuries to just 18 regular season games, went just 1-for-6 with four walks and a sacrifice fly and looked rough in the field as well; he could move to DH, with Encarnacin at first base, LeMahieu at third, and Urshela to the bench. If the Yankees deem Hicks healthy enough and theyre undecided at this writing he would play center field, with Gardner moving to left; otherwise, Maybin could get a look in left. The rustiness of Giancarlo Stanton and the possible return of Aaron Hicks from a right flexor strain that appeared as though it might end his season could result in a major lineup reconfiguration.

While you can count on Cole pitching seven or eighth innings, Severino has been on pitch counts since returning from injury and I wouldn't expect him to throw more than 90 pitches tonight. And on the flip side, you of course have Cole who is the most dominant pitcher in baseball. New York can typically count on Severino when he's healthy, but my issue here is his longevity. I'll take him. While their bullpen was excellent in Game 2, it's tough to expect them to be lights out all the time for an extended period. That could very easily get him through five innings and maybe six if he is in a good groove, but it still makes for more relievers the Yankees will have to use.